Nikita Krylov vs Volkan Oezdemir Pick & Prediction

October 21, 2022

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4:00 PM ET Oct 22
Nikita Krylov vs Volkan Oezdemir
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Nikita Krylov is a -175 favorite against Volkan Oezdemir. Their light heavyweight fight takes place at UFC 280 on Saturday October 22nd, 2022. These fighters will make the walk right around 12PM EST. 

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Nikita Krylov -175 vs Volkan Oezdemir

✅ Volkan Oezdemir will once again face a drop in his level of competition. He beat Paul Craig in his most recent fight, and that was a common opponent that Krylov was not able to beat. Leading up to that he fought a who’s who at 205 lbs. Recent opponents include  Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyes, Aleksander Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev and current champ Jiri Prochazka. Oezdemir is a crisp and powerful fighter that does not make mistakes. He also has some of the strongest hips we will see in MMA and is extremely difficult to take down. He is going to have a sound power edge in the striking. His power will be the difference in the striking exchanges and he will punish Krylov’s gas tank for any attempt to get the fight down. Look for Oezdemir to land the more damaging shots in a fight that oddsmakers believe ends inside the distance. The ITD line for the fight is -225. 

✅ Nikita Krylov had the best performance of his career in his last fight, at least in terms of result. He finished Alexader Gustafsson after knocking him down twice in the very first round. Krylov did all he could do against the opponent put in front of him. That said, he was facing an opponent that was completely a shell of the former fighter he was. Krylov looked great, but that context is very important. Krylov had dropped three of four fights leading into that, so it is puzzling why the oddsmakers are giving him the amount of respect they are in this matchup. He has also fought a significantly lower level of competition than his opponent. Krylov does have a rounded game and is is capable, but he does not have many areas of real advantage in this matchup. Krylov will not be the better striker, but he will have an advantage in speed. He will not have any ability to take down this specific opponent, and will need to win a striking heavy decision. 

✅ This is a fairly close fight, but I do believe the wrong fighter is favored entirely. Oezdemir is the fighter that has fought superior competition and is not a fighter that makes significant mistakas while the same cannot be said for Krylov. If there is a fighter that makes a fight ending mistake, it is far more likely to be Krylov. If no such mistake happens, we will likely see a close fight go to the scorecards. Since damage is scored as the most important factor, I believe Oezdemir is the more likely fighter to get the nod in that scenario as well. Take the very live underdog. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.