Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski Pick & Promo

May 19, 2022

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10:00 PM ET May 21
Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski
Holmes ITD
+105
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Joseph Holmes is a -195 favorite against Alen Amedovski. Their middleweight fight takes place at UFC Vegas 55 on Saturday May 21st, 2022. These fighters will make the walk between 615 and 630PM EST. 

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Joseph Holmes -195 vs Alen Amedovski

✅ Joseph Holmes UFC debut came against Jamie Pickett, who has truly developed and made strides since entering the UFC. Holmes lost a decision in that fight, and it truly had to be a fantastic learning experience for him, even in a loss. Holmes likely also learned the level of gas tank needed for hard UFC fights, and did show real durability in that fight. Holmes is extremely tall, long and rangy for middleweight. He stands 6’4” tall and has a massive 80” reach. His striking still has some more development to be done, but it sits at an adequate place. The strength of his game is his grappling, and he has been quite good at snatching submissions. He has won via submission in five of his last nine fights. 

✅ I truly did not realize Alen Amedovski was still on the UFC roster. He last fought in 2019, and was starched by John Phillips in just 14 seconds. Amedovski is not completely incapable, but the UFC found what they viewed as the softest possible opponent for this fight. Amedovski does bring a power element early on in fights, but it seems unlikely he is able to secure a knockout against a fighter that has proven himself durable. That holds particularly true when considering Holmes will have quite a large grappling advantage. Even if Amedovski were to knock Holmes down, he would have to go to the floor to finish Holmes, putting him in the realm where Holmes has the greatest advantage in the fight. 

✅ Holmes will be able to use his range to control the striking in the standup. He will mix in opportunistic takedown attempts to get the fight to the floor. Holmes is live for a knock out but his most obvious path to a finish is via submission. We are getting +105 on Holmes to win inside the distance and that is our plan of attack for this fight. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.