Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson Pick & Promo

July 21, 2022

clock
3:00 PM ET Jul 23
Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson
Herbert ITD
-120
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Jai Herbert is a -280 favorite against Kyle Nelson. Their lightweight fight takes place at UFC London on Saturday July 23rd, 2022. These fighters will make the walk around 12PM EST. 

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Jai Herbert -280 vs Kyle Nelson

✅ By my view, Kyle Nelson is at the very bottom of the roster in the lightweight division. He did notch a single UFC win, but that was the last fight for Marco Polo Reyes before he was cut. I can say Nelson has adequate power, but that will be the end of the positives for him compared to other UFC lightweights. Nelson will be live enough for that early KO in this matchup, but will likely need to land that perfect shot. He is not a high end wrestler nor grappler, and will be in for a long night if he does not catch perfect early on. 

✅Jai Herbert is in  an extremely favorable spot in this matchup. This is a huge step down in competition for Herbert, as he has lost to truly solid fighters thus far. In just four UFC fights, Herbert has drawn Francisco Trinaldo, Renato Moicano and Ilia Topuria. Herbert truly could have gotten a finish in the Trinaldo fight, and had the misfortune of running into superior grapplers in the other two. I would be remiss to not mention he truly could have finished Topuria as well, but Topuria recovered and rallied after being hurt. 

As long as the Herbert chin does not give out immediately, he is going to roll in this fight. Herbert will absolutely be the superior striker here and also matches the power of Nelson. He is the better wrestler and the better grappler. He has Nelson covered in every aspect and only needs to avoid the flash KO early on. I do not think there is any way Nelson survives a full 15 minutes with Herbert, and the -120 ITD line is a screaming value. That will be our avenue of attack. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.