Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis Pick & Promo

July 21, 2022

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8:00 PM ET Jul 23
Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis
Curtis
-105
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Jack Hermansson is a -115 favorite against Chris Curtis. Their middleweight fight takes place at UFC London on Saturday July 23rd, 2022. These fighters will make the walk around 6PM EST. 

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Jack Hermansson -115 vs Chris Curtis

✅ Chris Curtis takes this fight on short notice to replace Darren Till after having just competed in late June. Curtis earned a somewhat dominant decision win over Rodolfo Vieira in that most recent fight. We saw his striking take over once again. That striking earned him KO wins in each of his first three UFC fights. What was most impressive was the next level takedown defense in that fight. Curtis was hyper aware to not go to the mat with Vieira, and the exact same game plan is prudent in this matchup. Jack Hermansson does not bring the same level of submission threat as Vieira, but then again, no one does. That said, Hermansson is a very high end grappler and brings a vicious ground and pound element. Once again, look for Curtis to keep the fight upright as he has shown he can do in spades. 

✅ Jack Hermansson is certainly not a smooth or crisp striker, but is very good when considering the striking is, in fact, clunky. Hermansson likes to press forward and mix in leg kicks. I think throwing leg kicks will be a problem for him in this matchup, however. If Hermansson is throwing those leg kicks, he is going to be giving reads to the very high end boxer in Curtis. He will also not be trying to get the fight to the mat if throwing those leg kicks. I believe Curtis will take advantage to the body and head if Jack throws more than just a few leg kicks early on. It will become a necessity  for Hermansson to get this fight to the mat, and I believe he will have real difficulty doing so. Hermansson is simply outclassed as a striker and facing a fighter that has shown truly elite takedown defense. 

✅ We are going to see Hermansson press forward and quite literally walk right right onto shots from Curtis. Hermansson’s wrestling does not match the quality of his ground game and his offensive wrestling is not on the level of Curtis defensive wrestling. The vast majority of this fight will take place in the stand up, giving every advantage to Chris Curtis. I think a knock out is very much in play, but I am not sure the ITD pricing on Curtis warrants the aggressive step up. I prefer the -105 flat line over the +225 ITD line on Curtis. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.