Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves Pick & Prediction

July 28, 2022

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1:30 AM ET Jul 31
Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves
Dober ITD
+140
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Drew Dober is a -200 favorite against Rafael Alves. Their lightweight fight takes place at UFC 277 on Saturday July 30th, 2022. These fighters will make the walk right around 9PM EST. 

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Drew Dober -200 vs Rafael Alves

✅ Drew Dober is a very well rounded fighter, and strikes as a southpaw. He has real power, is a great wrestler and a rock solid grappler. Dober has only lost to extremely high level fighters in the division. The remainder of his losses and the only ones in the last six years have come to Islam Mackhachev, Beneil Dariush and Brad Riddell. Anyone below that level of fighter has not been able to get past Dober, and this fight certainly falls into that category. In his most recent fight, Dober derailed the hype of Terrance McKinney. Dober’s last three wins have all come against fighters thought to have true ceilings at the time and have all come by way of knock out. Dober will once again face an opponent that will look to swarm in the early portion of the fight. Dober has had zero issue weathering those storms and turning that approach into a knockout. Dober will have the overall volume edge in this matchup, and a power edge as well. He is the better wrestler, particularly defensively, and Dober will dictate where this fight takes place. 

✅ Rafael Alves has fought at lightweight since earning his contract on DWCS in the featherweight division. He won that fight via guillotine and his lone UFC win in two tries have come via guillotine as well. That guillotine is certainly dangerous so Dober will have to be careful where he sticks his neck should he choose to wrestle. Alves will also bring power early, but also brings a questionable gas tank where as his opponent will not. Alves will find himself grasping at straws if he is not able to notch an early finish, as he will be a step behind in every aspect of MMA. 

✅ This fight will likely see a world of fireworks early on. Alves will come out hard, and Dober will be both weathering and firing back. I think Dober is far more live for a KO in the early firefight with a counter. He will also methodically take over the fight as it progresses, and I believe the biggest question is whether he notches an early finish or a later finish. With the two to one favorite returning +140 on the ITD line, take Dober to notch the finish.

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.