UFC Vegas 63 Pick & Promos

UFC Vegas 63 takes place on Saturday October 29th, 2022 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card is scheduled for 11 fights, culminating with a main event between Arnold Allen vs Calvin Kattar at featherweight. We will see the first fighters make the walk at 4PM EST. UFC Vegas 63 streams live on ESPN+ for both the main card and the prelims. 

With just 11 fights to choose from for UFC Vegas 63, we were a bit limited on our betting options. Even still, we have three official betting picks. If you are itching for more action beyond that, feel free to fire at Arnold Allen in the main event at -125, a value line. Now let's dive into our official picks for UFC Vegas 63. 

✅ Waldo Cortes-Acosta -215 vs Jared Vanderaa

The debutant in Cortes-Acosta is the rightful favorite in this spot. He is young in his MMA career, but has a high end striking skill set that will be a legitimate mismatch in this fight. He will punish Vanderaa in the striking portions of this fight. We saw Vanderaa lit up by an inferior Chase Sherman in his most recent fight, which marked his fourth consecutive loss. Vanderaa has been finished in the stand up and on the floor, and has not shown himself to be a UFC caliber heavyweight. Vanderaa's best game plan here would be to attack takedowns early and often. The current hole in the Cortes-Acosta game is in that defensive wrestling. That said, he has shown an ability and urgency to return to his feet. Even if taken down, Cortes-Acosta will put it on Vanderaa in the standup, and a finish will follow. The -110 ITD line on a debutant may not feel like value, but I believe it absolutely is and will be our avenue of attack. 

Betting Pick: Cortes-Acosta ITD -110

✅ Dustin Jacoby -175 vs Khalil Rountree

This striking heavy matchup has Dustin Jacoby set as the rightful favorite, as he is the fighter with multiple paths to victory. Jacoby is a highly established kickboxer who has seen his skill set translate well in his return to the UFC. He is an advanced striker that is currently on quite a tear. He is on a four fight winning streak and unbeaten in his last eight fights, with just a draw mixed in. The complexity of the Jacoby striking is beyond that of Rountree, and he can match the power of his opponent. Rountree on the other hand is a KO or bust fighter. His volume will trail that of Jacoby's by a significant mark. He will also be the fighter in more danger if he sells out chasing a finish, as he will eat very stiff counters. If we see the scorecards, it is essentially guaranteed Jacoby will have his hand raised. Jacoby is also the fighter more likely to secure a knockout, although both are live in that sense. Take the value of -175 on Jacoby. 

Betting Pick: Jacoby -175

✅ Phil Hawes -175 vs Roman Dolidze

This is an intriguing matchup that frankly has what appears to be an incorrect betting line. Phil Hawes is a wrestler and striker with ample power and real capability for takedowns. He however is not an overly advanced striker and he has a gas tank that is highly questionable for three hard rounds. On the other side, Roman Dolidze has an extremely well rounded skill set and matches up very well with Hawes. Dolidze is durable, having never been finished in MMA. The same cannot be said for Hawes who was knocked out just two fights ago Dolidze certainly packs power and is very strong for the weight class. Dolidze is also the better fighter on the mat. He attacks leg submissions often, and can easily use them to reverse position or finish in this matchup should Hawes opt to wrestle. Dolidze will also be the better conditioned fighter, and he could truly force Hawes to gas later in the fight, particularly if we see a grueling pace. The natural power and strength of Dolidze will see him live for a KO early in the fight. The cardio advantage will see him live for the same late in the fight. He also has submission upside any time this fight hits the mat. With a massive +330 return on his ITD line, that big return will be our avenue of attack in this matchup. 

Betting Pick: Dolidze ITD +330