NCAA Baseball Tournament Hattiesburg Regional Preview & Predictions
Last updated May 29, 2025
The road to Omaha makes a regional stop in Mississippi this weekend as four markedly different programs head to Pete Taylor Park beginning on May 30, 2025. Southern Miss will welcome Alabama, Miami, and Columbia for a three-day slate that promises full grandstands and fireworks from the first pitch. Each club arrives with its own blend of slugging, power arms, and postseason aspirations, but only one team will advance to the Super Regionals. Below you will find a detailed breakdown of every roster, key statistical trends, current odds, and a Hattiesburg regional prediction for bettors who demand value rather than hype.
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Hattiesburg Regional Preview
Southern Miss earned the number 16 national seed after a 44-14 regular season and a dominant 24-6 Sun Belt record. That surge granted the Golden Eagles hosting honors and odds of -105 to win the Hattiesburg regional. Alabama travels in from the SEC as the two seed with a 41-16 record and sits at +175, a price that confirms how much respect the market gives the Alabama offense. The three-seed Miami rides into Mississippi at 31-24, listed at +410, while Ivy League champion Columbia checks in at 29-17 and a longshot at +1400. Friday’s opening slate features Southern Miss against Columbia, followed by Alabama against Miami, with the winners and losers bracket contests rolling through the weekend and a decisive seventh game on Monday if necessary.
Numbers alone do not crown a regional champion, yet they provide an informed foundation for wager in the outright markets here. The Golden Eagles post a .305 team batting average, a .514 slugging percentage, and an opponent average of .239, plus a stingy staff that limited bats to 48 homers across 58 games. Alabama’s lineup hit .280 with 91 long balls in the rugged SEC, while Miami’s offense remains volatile at .273, yet can be incredibly explosive. Columbia hit at a .290 average this season and has a bullpen that can keep them in games thanks to Baylor Hicks and Tomas Lopez.
Southern Miss Team Preview
Few programs have guarded their home turf better than Southern Miss in recent seasons, and Christian Ostrander’s second year continues that trend. Slugger Nick Monistere headlines a deep order with a .338 average, 19 homers, and 68 runs batted in. Center fielder Jake Cook provides table-setting ability at .350 with 28 walks against 18 strikeouts, and 54 runs scored. Ozzie Pratt, Tucker Stockman, and veteran masher Matthew Russo supply additional power, combining for 30 more homers and 132 RBI.
The rotation is anchored by Matthew Adams, who returned from injury to craft a 6-2 record and 3.93 ERA while striking out 77 over 71 frames. JB Middleton a 10-1 record and 114 strikeouts in 98.1 innings of work. Closer Colby Allen has nailed down 12 saves with a 3.54 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Southern Miss defends at a .972 clip, the best in this regional, which converts hard-hit balls into outs and shortens innings for its staff.
Miami Team Preview
The Hurricanes did enough down the stretch to gain an at-large berth despite inconsistent play during the season. They finished 15-14 in the ACC and struggled down the stretch, giving them an uphill climb if they want to see the Super Regionals. Shortstop Jake Ogden has been Miami’s heartbeat, slashing .350 /.419 /.512 with 8 homers, 30 RBI, and 12 steals on 12 tries. Third baseman Daniel Cuvet adds game-changing power with 16 homers and a .711 slugging percentage.
On the mound, AJ Ciscar sports a 5-1 record with a 3.77 ERA and great command, while Tate DeRias owns a 2-2 mark with a 3.98 ERA that understates his potent fastball. Miami will push those arms up against SEC bats, so location and composure will dictate how far the club progresses.
Alabama Team Preview
Rob Vaughn’s squad was the highest RPI team to miss out on a host slot, turning the Tide into a motivated road unit. Alabama’s offense punishes mistakes thanks to four hitters with double-digit homers. First baseman Kade Snell leads with a .366 average, 10 bombs, and a 1.047 OPS. Shortstop Justin Lebron supplies star power along with 18 homers, 72 RBI, and a .644 slugging percentage. Outfielder Richie Bonomolo Jr. hits .320 with eight long balls and a keen eye that helped him draw 40 walks.
On the mound, the Tide rely on power pitcher Riley Quick, who produced an 8-2 mark and 3.54 ERA through the SEC gauntlet, and Zane Adams, whose raw stuff plays better than his 5.37 ERA suggests. The bullpen is a true weapon for the Tide. Carson Ozmer ranks among national save leaders with 17, with a 2.89 ERA across 37.1 innings. Alabama defends with a .976 fielding percentage and has taken series from Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Georgia, proving its mettle.
Columbia Team Preview
The Ivy League champions arrive riding a nine-game winning streak that includes a 13-10 conference title game victory over Holy Cross. The Lions will not overpower foes physically but thrive on lengthening at-bats and timely extra-base hits. First baseman Sam Miller hits .342 with 16 homers and 55 RBI, while Jack Kail chips in a .310 average and seven homers. Anton Lazits adds 12 homers and a .597 slug percentage, giving Columbia three legitimate run producers.
Pitching depth is a concern for the Lions. Jagger Edwards, Joe Sheets, and Thomas Santana each logged 12 starts with ERA figures north of 5.00, though Edwards does a decent job of limiting walks. Columbia can use Tomas Lopez if trouble brews, who enters the regional round with a 0.87 ERA across eight appearances with a .167 opponent average. The Lions field well at the corners, yet must tighten up in the middle infield if they intend to stun the hosts on Friday.
Betting Insights
- Current regional odds: Southern Miss -105, Alabama +175, Miami +410, Columbia +1400
- The implied probability gap between Southern Miss and Alabama is roughly 5 percentage points, yet the power metrics show a bigger separation in pitching run prevention
- Southern Miss owns a +164 run differential, best among the quartet, while Alabama sits at +96, Miami at +22, and Columbia at +86 lar,gely against Ivy competition
- The underdog path for Miami involves taking game one versus Alabama behind Ciscar, forcing the Tide into the loser’s bracket, and lining up DeRias against an Ivy lineup Saturday. That route would shorten the workload on a thin bullpen
- Columbia carries the largest value swing if you believe in chaos, yet the Lions allowed 6.57 runs per nine innings, the worst staff ERA of any regional participant
- Southern Miss to win the regional at minus money feels steep, yet parlaying the Eagles with under totals in their games can mute juice because Adams and Middleton routinely generate weak contact and double-digit strikeout totals
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2025 Hattiesburg Regional Prediction
Southern Miss pairs elite balance with home-field advantage, a seasoned bullpen, and a strong fielding percentage. Alabama’s lineup is dangerous, yet the Tide’s rotation after Quick exposes some vulnerability despite their SEC pedigree. Miami is talented enough to score an opening upset but lacks the reliable third starter essential in a double-elimination format. Columbia’s contact-heavy profile could bother an aggressive Southern Miss staff for a few innings, yet the Lions lack swing-and-miss arms to survive a grind of four or five games.
The most probable script unfolds with Southern Miss dispatching Columbia on Friday and drawing the Alabama-Miami winner Saturday. Alabama will slug past Miami in game one, then face an emotionally charged elimination track that taxes their arms and leaves them thin by Sunday. Miami exits Saturday night unless DeRias delivers the outing of his career. Columbia, while scrappy, bows out early.
Final call: Southern Miss wins the regional, Alabama finishes second, Miami third, Columbia fourth. For bettors, the recommended play is Southern Miss outright at -105 paired with a fractional unit on Alabama at +175 as insurance against a Saturday night slugfest that tilts the bracket on its head.
