Khaos Williams vs Randy Brown Pick & Promo

May 6, 2022

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12:00 AM ET May 8
Khaos Williams vs Randy Brown
Williams
-125
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Khaos Williams -125 vs Randy Brown

✅ This striking matchup will be decided by which fighter can dictate the range. Randy Brown is a very tall and slender welterweight. His 6’3” frame is a skinny one, and he will have a 3” height advantage. The downside for him is that his very long 78” reach will only have a 1” edge in this matchup. Brown is on a consistent path here, and he does not appear to be leveling up with his skill set, and that has held true for years. His first four fights in the promotion were all over five years ago and against lower level competition. When moving to the most recent eight fights over five years, we clearly see a trend of not being able to get past a certain level of opponent. At 32 years old, that does not project to change any time soon. 

✅ Williams will keep this fight on the feet has he always does, and look to put his power to use. It would not be a surprise to see Brown try to get this fight to the floor, but there are a pair of problems with that for Brown. The first is simply his ability to land a takedown on Williams, who has only been taken down on one of five UFC fights. The second is that moving to wrestling range puts him in the danger zone of the Khaos Williams power. 

We always knew Khaos had very real and natural KO power. He throws everything heavy. He also showed that he can keep steady volume over three rounds and win on the scorecards if his power does not win the day early. Williams will start the fight having to solve the problem of the longer Brown wanting to stay on the outside and try to point strike. Khaos will begin by battering the slight legs of Brown, and I believe that will have a big impact. Once those start landing, Williams will bull his way inside and land what will be the easily more impactful strikes. 

✅ We are going to see Williams quickly solve the puzzle of Brown’s length. He is going to land to the head and legs and a KO would be far from surprising. In fact a KO for Williams is probably the most likely outcome of the fight. With that said, Khaos could easily win a decision as well, but leaving it to the judges is dangerous against a fighter that will likely look to make it a point striking affair from the outside. In any event, the -125 line on Williams is far too short. The +160 ITD line on him does offer a bit of value, but I am happier covering all winning outcomes on the -125 flat line. 

Betting Pick: Williams -125

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.