Blagoy Ivanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima Pick & Promo

May 6, 2022

10:00 PM ET May 7
Blagoy Ivanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Ivanov ITD

Blagoy Ivanov -150 vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

✅ Blagoy Ivanov is a Sambo fighter that has gone 2-3 in the promotion. While that record does not sound impressive by any means, he has fought a noticeably high level of competition. All five of his previous UFC opponents have been in main events before. His wins have come against Tai Tuivasa and Ben Rothwell. His losses have come against Junior Dos Santos, Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai. All five fights have gone to the judges scorecards. 

Before moving to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, I want to contrast the level of competition faced at heavyweight. The most difficult opponents Rogerio de Lima has run into are Alexandr Romanov and Stefan Struve. Both of those fighters submitted Lima before the midway point of Round 2. 

Back to Ivanov, he has a very good grappling skill set, but he does not always put it to work in the octagon. In his first two UFC fights, he did not even attempt a single takedown, which is a disservice to himself. Since then he has landed 6 of 11 takedowns and had at least one in each of his last three fights. Considering where he has advantages in this fight, takedowns are very much going to be his friend. Rogerio de Lima has five losses in the UFC, all via submission. He has been taken down in four of those fights and even was submitted a fifth time without being taken down. Ivanov going to that portion of his skill set is easily the path of least resistance, and it would be far to say no resistance. 

✅ Rogerio de Lima can certainly crack, he has big power in his hands. He has scored two knockouts in the heavyweight division. The problem for him is that Ivanov is insanely durable. This is a fighter that has been in there with some of the heaviest hitters in the division without being slept. That includes Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. Rogerio de Lima is likely in a knock out or bust spot against an insanely durable fighter. 

✅ This fight will play out with Rogerio de Lima being extremely stuck on his back once taken down. We have seen it before and it will happen once again. The fact that Ivanov has chosen to wrestle in each of his last three fights bodes very well for him securing the easy win against the massive hole in his opponent’s game. The real question for me on this fight is whether to attack the -150 flat line on Ivanov or the juicy +200 ITD line. Considering Rogerio de Lima has been submitted every time he’s been put on his back, I am going the aggressive route on the ITD line. 

Betting Pick: Ivanov ITD +200

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.