Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa Pick & Promo

April 8, 2022

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10:00 PM ET Apr 9
Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa
Oleinik
-110
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Aleksei Oleinik -110 vs Jared Vanderaa

✅ Jared Vanderaa is a fighter that prefers to strike, but one that lacks power for a UFC heavyweight. He has big problems when his opponents look to grapple in MMA. His takedown defense has often failed him. He has been able to return to his feet, but in the two UFC fights in which an opponent landed a takedown on him, he was finished on both occasions. The lack of power is an issue as well.  He strikes as a point fighter and is looking to the judge’s scorecards at this level. It is power and pace that is the deterrent for his opponent in this fight. While Vanderaa does keep a high enough pace, he does not bring the power threat to keep the grappling from being initiated. 

✅ Aleksei Oleinik steps in to take this fight after his fight with Ilir Latifi was forced to be cancelled twice. We were going to bet Latifi in that fight, but the new matchup creates a completely different set of circumstances. Latifi is a great wrestler with next level takedown defense. Latifi is also a fighter that wings powerful bombs, The opposite holds true for Vanderaa in both areas. This matchup sets up perfectly for Oleinik after facing one that set up terribly. 

✅I suspect Vanderaa’s black belt is what has kept this line as a pickem, but he is not close to Oleinik’s level when it comes to submissions. Oleinik will be able to force this fight to the floor and that is where he operates at a higher level than any other heavyweight. He is going to have his way on the floor and will not be threatened to have his lights put out in the stand up. I believe an Oleinik submission is the most likely outcome, but we would only get +135 on the ITD line. With that being the case, Oleinik flat is a great value and a comfortable betting play. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.