NCAA Baseball Tournament Nashville Regional Preview & Predictions
Last updated May 29, 2025
The Nashville Regional of the 2025 NCAA baseball tournament opens on Friday, May 30 at Hawkins Field, placing the No. 1 overall seed Vanderbilt Commodores in a double-elimination pod with Louisville, East Tennessee State, and Wright State. It shapes up as one of the weekend’s most intriguing groups for bettors with four very different rosters, three explosive offenses, and one pitching-heavy favorite. Futures boards at DraftKings and other shops list Vanderbilt at +1000 to win the national title, Louisville at +10000, ETSU at +8000, and Wright State at +50000. With first pitch fast approaching, here is a thorough breakdown of every club, the numbers that matter, and where the wagering value may hide.
- One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
- Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
- Great Promotions
Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins
Nashville Regional Preview
Vanderbilt (42-16) rode a deep pitching staff and an SEC-tournament crown to the top overall seed. The Commodores are 28-5 at home and bring a 3.76 staff ERA that ranks top-10 nationally. Louisville (35-21) counterpunches with a .306 team batting average and 72 homers but owns a shaky 5.72 ERA that has bettors leery. East Tennessee State (41-15) is the classic mid-major threat: .313 batting average, 116 long balls, and an excellent bullpen arm in Brady Frederick (8-1, 2.54 ERA). Horizon League champion Wright State (38-19) leads the regional field with 517 runs and 123 stolen bases, yet the Raiders’ staff allows 6.55 runs per game on the road. The bracket opens with Louisville–ETSU at 2:00 pm local time, followed by Vanderbilt–Wright State at 6:00 pm, setting up a potential all-offense elimination tilt on Saturday.
Vanderbilt Team Preview
The Commodores’ stat profile screams balance. Their .270 team average is supplemented by selectivity (254 walks) and situational speed (103 steals). Center fielder Riley Nelson is the catalyst, slashing .358/.464/.534 with 45 RBI and seven homers. Shortstop Jonathan Vastine (.283, 9 HR) lengthens the order, while Braden Holcomb (.289, 9 HR) delivers timely power.
On the mound, Tim Corbin can choose from several frontline arms: right-hander JD Thompson (5-5, 4.06 ERA, 110 K in 82 IP) pairs a mid-90s fastball with a hammer curve. Luke Guth (0.93 ERA in 19.1 relief frames) and slider-first closer Sawyer Hawks (7 saves, 1.64 ERA) shorten games. Vanderbilt’s opponents hit only .219, and the staff’s 657 strikeouts rank among the nation’s best.
The lone weakness is occasional power droughts for Vandy. Their lineup’s 62 homers sit mid-pack by SEC standards, but the Commodores compensate by pressuring defenses (127 steal attempts) and racking up extra-base hits late. Their 28-5 record on their turf is a key betting edge going into tournament play.
Louisville Team Preview
You won’t find a hotter offense than that of Louisville. The Cardinals score 8.2 runs per outing and have seven regulars slugging above .500. Lucas Moore (.373, 46-for-47 on stolen-base tries) sets the table, while first baseman Eddie King Jr. has mashed 14 homers with a .717 slugging clip even in fewer than 50 games. Tague Davis’s 18 round-trippers and shortstop Zion Rose’s blend of pop and wheels (11 HR, 29 steals) give Louisville the muscle to ambush any fastball-heavy staff.
The question for Louisville is run prevention. A 5.72 team ERA, 4.80 weekend starter Patrick Forbes, and a bullpen that walks 6.0 per nine innings create sweat for under-backers. Two bright spots on the hill are Jake Schweitzer (2.41 ERA, .192 BAA) and Wyatt Danilowicz (2.67 ERA, .181 BAA), who can lock down the late innings, but the rest of their staff will need to step up to match their output. Louisville’s 27-7 home record has inflated its power numbers; away from Jim Patterson Stadium, the Cards allow 7.2 runs per game, a detail worth remembering if they must chase Vanderbilt in the Saturday winner’s bracket game.
East Tennessee State Team Preview
The ETSU Buccaneers crashed the bracket by leading the Southern Conference in every hitting category and finishing with a +209 run differential. They average 8.8 runs per game behind a lineup that sports four double-digit homer hitters. Right fielder Cooper Torres (.378, 23 HR, 1.260 OPS) is a legitimate All-America candidate. Grant Gallagher (.480 OBP, 20 HR) and Cody Miller (.330 BA, 16 HR) give ETSU power throughout the lineup.
Run prevention for ETSU is steadier than most bettors would assume. The staff ERA sits at 4.44, but the rotation’s top trio (Jace Hyde, Carter Fink, and Michael Harpster) have all been solid. Frederick’s .178 opponent average and 70 punch-outs in 71 IP could play in any venue, and Hyde’s seven victories without a loss will make the Buccaneers worth watching when he is on the bump.
ETSU also carries the region’s highest on-base percentage (.414) thanks to 284 walks. The Bucs’ path starts against Louisville, whose pitching profile matches ETSU’s lineup strengths. A mild upset in Game 1 would flip the regional board and slash the Bucs' +8000 futures price quickly.
Wright State Team Preview
If you prefer offense at long odds, meet the Wright State Raiders. This club ranks seventh nationally in scoring (9.1 runs per game). Boston Smith owns an absurd 1.278 OPS with 23 homers and 56 walks. Middle-order menace JP Peltier (20 HR, 22 steals) and Hunter Warren (.342, 45 RBI) keep pressure on opposing pitchers through all nine innings. Wright State’s .424 OBP is the highest in this foursome, and 330 walks show patience that can rattle power pitchers behind in counts.
The hitch? Run prevention. The Raiders’ 6.31 staff ERA is a legitmate concern against quality competition here, and only Max Whitesell (3.22 ERA) sits below 4.00 among regulars on the mound. Cam Allen (7-3, 5.43 ERA) draws Vanderbilt in the Raiders' opener. He has issued 38 free passes in 61.1 innings. Wright State holds value as a high-variance underdog, as 61% of its games have cleared the closing total, but backers will need double-digit run support to cash big upset tickets with them.
Betting Insights
Futures
Regional-winner markets have Vanderbilt as the favorites to advance in this region. They are at -270 to move on, while Louisville is +420, ETSU is +550, and Wright State is +2600 to advance to the Super Regionals.
Game 1 Moneylines
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Louisville (-125) is a slight favorite over ETSU (-105) in the opening game of this regional. Vanderbilt is a -620 favorite against Wright State, who are +400 to upset the hosts in their opening game.
New users at DraftKings can take advantage of our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet $5 on the game of their choice and get $300 in bonus bets if their bet wins. That is a huge value for any game in this region, especially in games where Vandy is a heavy favorite at home.
2025 Nashville Regional Prediction
Vanderbilt’s pitching depth, elite home-field advantage, and strikeout-heavy relief corps give the Commodores the clearest path to the Super Regionals. The bracket likely funnels into a Saturday night showdown with Louisville, whose bats can punish any mistake, but whose pitching portfolio cannot string together the reliability needed in a best-of-three day stretch.
ETSU is the sleeper here. If the Buccaneers manage to subdue Louisville in Game 1, they could ride Hyde or Fink against a Vanderbilt lineup that ranks just 59th in slugging. Still, the Dores’ arms are built to withstand offensive weather at Hawkins Field, and their lineup’s plate discipline limits high-variance innings. Wright State’s offense will make noise, but sustained rallies against Vanderbilt’s power arms feel unlikely.
Pick: Vanderbilt advances in 3-0 fashion, while ETSU finishes runner-up. For bettors, the sensible swing is Vanderbilt to win the regional, paired with an ETSU upset in Friday’s opener against the Cards. Futures investors can keep a small Vanderbilt +1000 ticket with the expectation of hedging in Omaha.
