NCAA Baseball Tournament Corvallis Regional Preview & Predictions
Last updated May 29, 2025
The Corvallis Regional of the 2025 NCAA baseball tournament opens on Friday, May 30, and it brings together four programs that arrive with the same ambition: to stamp a ticket to the Super Regional round. Top-seed Oregon State carries the No. 8 national seed and a sparkling 41-12-1 record, while No. 2 seed TCU rides a 39-18 mark from the Big 12. USC, now a Big Ten member, takes the No. 3 seed at 35-21, and West Coast Conference champion Saint Mary’s rounds out the bracket at 35-24. The first game pits TCU against USC, followed by Oregon State against Saint Mary’s to kick off double-elimination play.
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Corvallis Regional Preview
Oregon State’s Goss Stadium has long been one of the toughest postseason venues, and the 2025 Beavers aren't expected to be easy to beat there either. They average 7.3 runs and concede only 4.7, a differential that ranks among the best in Division I. The Beavers’ deep rotation faces an explosive but occasionally erratic TCU lineup, a USC club that leans on frontline pitching, and a Saint Mary’s group fresh off its dramatic WCC run. With double-elimination rules, pitching depth and bullpen efficiency often decide weekends like this. Oregon State owns a staff ERA of 4.42 and an opponent average of .230, the best set of numbers in the pod, while TCU counters with a .300 team average and 66 homers, most in the four-team field. USC brings plenty of big-game pedigree from the Big Ten gauntlet, and Saint Mary’s knows how to trade blows, though strength of schedule will be a concern for them.
Oregon State Team Preview
The Beavers’ regular season featured a 17-2 record at home and series wins over Cal State Fullerton and Long Beach State. Aiva Arquette leads the offense at .348 with 17 homers and 60 RBI, flanked by Gavin Turley at .338 and 15 homers. Six players slug over .475, and the roster’s .408 on-base percentage keeps constant pressure on pitching staffs.
On the mound, right-hander Ethan Kleinschmit paces the rotation with a 7-3 mark, 3.84 ERA, and 89 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, joined by power arm Dax Whitney, who matches the strikeout total of Kleinschmit in 60.2 frames. Nelson Keljo, Wyatt Queen, and Laif Palmer all have opponent averages below .220 and figure to factor into games in this regional. Add a .982 fielding rate and 42 double plays, and the Beavers rarely gift extra outs.
USC Team Preview
USC played one of the nation’s hardest schedules after shifting into the Big Ten, finishing 18-12 in conference action and fourth overall. Veteran right-hander Caden Aoki headlines the staff with a 5-4 record, 4.21 ERA, and 81 strikeouts. The bullpen leans on Ethan Hedges, who has nine saves and a .173 BAA. Offensively, center fielder Brayden Dowd hits .322, while Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek and Hedges supply added home-run power. The Trojans rarely beat themselves, but the lineup’s 23% strikeout rate is the highest in the regional and can stall rallies.
TCU Team Preview
TCU’s season flipped in mid-March when Tommy LaPour took over on the mound. He has an 8-2 record, 2.89 ERA, and a microscopic .223 opponent average. Mason Brassfield adds a 3.56 ERA and 5 wins, giving coach Kirk Saarloos a one-two punch that keeps high-octane Big 12 lineups in check. Offensively, Sawyer Strosnider is the table-setter, batting .354 with 10 homers, 50 RBI, and a 1.072 OPS. He is protected by Chase Brunson, who bats .323 with 12 homers, and Noah Franco, who owns a .569 slugging percentage.
TCU leads the region with 84 stolen bases. The Frogs average 7.3 runs and allow 4.8, though blowout losses to Arizona State and BYU inflated the staff ERA to 5.12 in league play. Their biggest concern is free passes, as their staff issues 3.6 walks per nine, the highest average in the pod.
Saint Mary's Team Preview
Saint Mary’s reached the NCAA tournament by rattling off four straight wins in Las Vegas, capped by a 9-8 thriller against San Diego for the WCC crown. The Gaels posted a 35-24 record behind a contact-heavy offense and effective pitching. First baseman Eddie Madrigal piles up multi-hit games and drives the lineup with a .372 average, .464 on-base rate, and 21 homers. Aiden Taurek and Diego Castellanos both hit well over .300 on the year as well. On the mound, a 6.20 team ERA is a huge concern when taking on three programs that can make high-caliber opposing pitching pay for their mistakes.
Betting Insights
Futures markets show Oregon State trading at +4000 to win the College World Series at DraftKings. TCU sits slightly shorter at +3500, reflecting respect for their offensive ceiling, while USC hovers near +20000 and Saint Mary’s at +50000. In regional-specific pricing, Oregon State opens as a −120 favorite to win the pod, TCU +140, USC +600, and Saint Mary’s +2200.
Before Corvallis regional play begins, be sure to take advantage of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook promo when betting the games. At DraftKings, new users can bet $5 and win $300 in bonus bets if their first bet wins, including on Corvallis regional action.
2025 Corvallis Regional Prediction
Handicapping this region starts with pitching depth. Oregon State certainly has the advantage there. That margin becomes more prominent in a double-elimination format where the fourth game often decides everything. Offensively, the Beavers balance contact and the ability to get on base with power. TCU’s lineup can ambush any fastball, yet their bullpen walk issues could resurface against patient offenses, as seen in late-season collapses against Utah and BYU. USC’s path hinges on Hedges plus Dowd keeping them viable offensively. Saint Mary’s needs a squeaky-clean defensive effort and another multi-homer outburst from Madrigal to stay in the winner’s bracket.
The projection: Oregon State advances in three games, defeating Saint Mary’s Friday, toppling the TCU-USC winner Saturday, and clinching Sunday behind Kleinschmit. Value lies in taking Oregon State at −120 to win the regional at home.
Final order: 1 Oregon State, 2 TCU, 3 USC, 4 Saint Mary’s.
