Avalanche Depth Puts Pressure on Penguins in Denver
— Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Pick on March 16, 2026
The Pittsburgh Penguins head to Denver on Monday after a useful 4 to 3 win at Utah, while the Colorado Avalanche return home looking to sharpen up after a 3 to 1 loss in Winnipeg. This NHL pick starts with the gap in overall quality, but it also has to account for the fact that Pittsburgh has been dangerous enough offensively to hang around in games even when the results have turned uneven.
Colorado still carries the better team profile by a comfortable margin. The Avalanche score more, defend better, and usually control the puck for longer stretches. Pittsburgh can make this interesting if its top line gets rolling, though the more likely script still points to Colorado dictating the game on home ice.
Our Penguins vs Avalanche Pick
📌 Pick: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -180
📈 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche
- Date & Time: March 16, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
- Broadcast: ESPN, Prime, SN-PIT, TVAS
| Moneyline | Puckline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Penguins +155 | Avalanche -180 | Penguins +1.5 -165 | Avalanche -1.5 +140 | Over 6.5 -115 | Under 6.5 -105 |
Key Storylines
Recent form
Pittsburgh comes in off a 4 to 3 road win against Utah, a result that stopped some of the recent drift and showed the Penguins still have enough push to rally when the game gets messy. Noel Acciari scored the go-ahead goal in the third period, and the Penguins improved to 33 to 18 and 15. Even so, the larger sample remains a little shakier. Before that Utah win, Pittsburgh had lost 5 of 7, and that is the stretch bettors need to weigh more heavily than one clean result.
Colorado is still one of the league’s best teams, but it has not been quite as smooth lately as the overall record suggests. The Avalanche fell 3 to 1 at Winnipeg on Saturday, and that left them with 2 losses in their last 3 after a five-game winning streak. The important difference is that Colorado’s bad nights still tend to come with long stretches of territorial control. That usually gives the Avalanche a stronger floor than Pittsburgh, especially back at Ball Arena.
Injury Update
Pittsburgh has several players on the injury report. Sidney Crosby is on injured reserve, while Ryan Graves and Filip Hallander are also on injured reserve. Justin Brazeau and Jack St. Ivany are listed out, and both Samuel Girard and Kevin Hayes are currently day-to-day.
Colorado has fewer absences at the top of the lineup. Ross Colton is listed day-to-day, while Logan O’Connor remains on injured reserve. Both Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen are out with upper-body or lower-body issues.
The bigger concern in this matchup still leans toward Pittsburgh, since the absence of Sidney Crosby significantly changes the structure of the Penguins’ forward group.
Goaltending
Pittsburgh has had mixed results in net, and that remains one of the bigger variables in this game. Tristan Jarry owns a .888 save percentage this season, while Arturs Silovs has been a little steadier at .897. Silovs also posted a shutout against Vegas earlier this month and has generally given Pittsburgh a better chance when the game turns wide open. The issue is that neither number compares all that well with Colorado’s current standard.
Mackenzie Blackwood has been one of the quieter reasons Colorado has stayed so stable. He carries a 2.42 goals against average and a .908 save percentage, and even in the loss at Winnipeg he stopped 15 of 17 shots before the empty-netter. In a game where Colorado is likely to generate more quality chances, that edge in net adds another layer to the Avalanche side.
Key skaters
- Sidney Crosby still leads Pittsburgh with 59 points and 27 goals despite the injury absence. His situation matters because it leaves Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha under more pressure to carry the offense.
- Bryan Rust has 51 points in 59 games and remains one of Pittsburgh’s most dangerous finishers. He is a key piece if the Penguins are going to trade offense with Colorado.
- Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 40 assists and is still central to the transition game. The Penguins need his puck movement to avoid spending too much time defending.
- Nathan MacKinnon drives everything for Colorado with 109 points, 44 goals, and 65 assists. He is the single biggest matchup problem on the ice and can tilt this game quickly if Pittsburgh loses its defensive shape.
- Martin Necas gives Colorado another elite attacking option with 80 points in 62 games. He makes it much harder for teams to key only on MacKinnon.
- Cale Makar adds 67 points from the blue line and keeps the Avalanche dangerous from the top of the zone, especially when the power play gets chances.
Betting Trends & H2H
The puckline is worth a look because Pittsburgh has done a decent job staying within one goal even during parts of this uneven run, but the cleaner betting angle still looks like Colorado on the moneyline. Pittsburgh is 40-26 against the line this season, which is solid, while Colorado sits at 34-31. That gap is one reason the plus 1.5 has some appeal, though the stronger straight-up case remains with the Avalanche.
Totals have leaned over a little more for Pittsburgh than for Colorado. The Penguins are 35-29-2 to the over, while the Avalanche are 28-35-2. That fits the eye test. Pittsburgh scores 3.38 goals per game and gives up 2.86, while Colorado scores 3.75 and allows only 2.43. Home and road splits push this further toward the Avalanche. Pittsburgh is 17-9-7 away from home, which is respectable, but Colorado is 23-5-4 at home and has been one of the league’s toughest teams to fade in Denver. This also appears to be the first meeting between these clubs this season, so there is no fresh head-to-head result to pull the number in either direction.
Penguins vs Avalanche Model Projection
🏒 Score Projection: Pittsburgh Penguins 3 – Colorado Avalanche 5
📊 Win Probability: Pittsburgh Penguins 35%, Colorado Avalanche 65%
Final Thoughts
Pittsburgh has enough scoring to make the game interesting for stretches, especially if Rust, Karlsson, and the power play can create a few clean looks early. Still, Colorado has too many edges to ignore. The Avalanche are deeper, healthier in the core of the lineup, better in net, and far more efficient over the full season. Pittsburgh’s recent win at Utah helps the confidence level a little, but this is a very different class of opponent. If Blackwood is even average and MacKinnon gets his usual volume of touches, Colorado has the best path to control the night and finish the game in regulation.
Best Bet: Avalanche ML -180 ✔️