Montreal Carries Momentum Into Favorable Matchup With Tampa Bay

Martin Efvergren | Senior Editor

Updated April 9, 2026 • 6 min read

— Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction on April 9, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning arrive in Montreal trying to stop a late wobble, while the Montreal Canadiens keep finding ways to win tight games and chaotic ones. That contrast matters here. The Lightning still bring elite talent, but the Canadiens are in better rhythm right now and have already shown they can frustrate Tampa Bay in this season series. This NHL pick leans into that recent form, the home setting, and a game script that feels more balanced than the betting line suggests.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Pick

📌 Pick: Montreal Canadiens Moneyline

📈 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens
• Date & Time: April 9, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec
• Broadcast: The Spot, TSN2

Key Storylines

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game off a 6-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators on April 7, and that result fits a rough mini-stretch more than a one-off stumble. They also lost 4-2 to the Buffalo Sabres on April 6 before bouncing back earlier with wins over Boston and Pittsburgh. The larger takeaway is that Tampa Bay still scores enough to stay dangerous, but the defensive side has looked more fragile than usual over the last few games. That becomes harder to manage against a Montreal team that is getting contributions from several places in the lineup.

The Montreal Canadiens arrive off a 4-3 shootout win over the Florida Panthers on April 7, and that result says a lot about their current identity. They were down multiple times, kept responding, and eventually closed the door late. Before that, they lost 3-0 to the New Jersey Devils on April 5, but they also beat the Devils 4-3 in a shootout on April 4 and beat the New York Rangers 3-2 on April 2. This is a team that has been playing with confidence, and the recent run has not been built on one hot line alone.

Game flow is the key question. Tampa Bay would rather lean on skill and finish from its top-end group, while Montreal has looked comfortable in games that shift from structured hockey into chance trading. That matters because the Canadiens have already beaten the Lightning 4-1 in the most recent meeting between these teams, and they come into this one with more rhythm and fewer doubts than Tampa Bay has shown over the last week.

Injury Report

Tampa Bay is dealing with several confirmed absences and day-to-day situations. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel are both listed as day-to-day, while Victor Hedman remains out on long-term injured reserve. Pontus Holmberg is out, and Maxwell Crozier is also on long-term injured reserve.

Montreal has fewer issues but still a few names to monitor. Joe Veleno is listed as day-to-day, while Alexandre Carrier is out and Patrik Laine remains on injured reserve.

Goaltending

Tampa Bay still has the bigger name in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has gone 37-14-4 with a 2.33 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage, which is still elite by any standard. Even so, the team in front of him has not protected him as well over the last week, and that changes the feel of his starts.

Montreal has gotten strong work from Jakub Dobes, who has become a major reason for this push. He enters with 27 wins, a 2.73 goals-against average, and a .904 save percentage. He may not have Vasilevskiy’s career profile, but his current form is a real part of why Montreal has been so difficult to put away.

Key Skaters

• Nikita Kucherov continues to drive Tampa Bay’s offense with 127 points, 43 goals, and 84 assists. He remains the most dangerous playmaker on the ice.
• Jake Guentzel has added 37 goals and 86 points, giving Tampa Bay another top-end finisher who can punish defensive mistakes quickly.
• Brayden Point brings pace and finishing touch with 18 goals and 48 points in 60 games, and his line remains central to Tampa Bay’s ability to control stretches.
• Nick Suzuki leads Montreal with 96 points and 68 assists, and he continues to be the player who settles the Canadiens when games start to get hectic.
• Cole Caufield has 49 goals and 86 points, and his shot has been one of the biggest reasons Montreal can keep pace with high-end offenses.
• Lane Hutson has delivered 75 points from the back end, which gives Montreal a major puck-moving edge and another way to create offense without forcing the play.

Betting Trends & H2H

Tampa Bay is 2-1-0 against Montreal this season, but the most recent meeting went to the Canadiens by a 4-1 score on March 31. That matters because it is the freshest read on how these teams currently stack up.

From a puckline perspective, Tampa Bay is 41-37 on the season, while Montreal is 44-34. Total records are also close, with the Lightning at 40-33-5 and the Canadiens at 43-33-2. This has not been a one-note matchup from a totals angle, which is one reason the side feels cleaner than forcing an over or under.

Home and road splits also add something here. Tampa Bay is 23-11-5 away from home, which is strong, but Montreal is 23-14-2 at home and enters this game in much better recent rhythm. That matters more than the full-season split on its own because both teams are now in a late-season environment where current form carries more weight.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Model Projection

🏒 Score Projection: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 – Montreal Canadiens 4

📊 Win Probability: Tampa Bay Lightning 47%, Montreal Canadiens 53%

This game looks tighter than the standings and reputations might suggest at first glance. Tampa Bay still has enough skill to win almost any game, and Andrei Vasilevskiy always gives the Lightning a path. The problem is that Montreal is the team carrying cleaner form into this spot, and the Canadiens have already shown they can handle this opponent when the pace rises and the pressure builds.

Montreal also looks a little more complete right now. The recent results are better, the lineup is steadier, and the team has been responding well in close games. At home, with confidence running high and Tampa Bay still dealing with injuries in key places, the Canadiens have enough going for them to take this one.

Best Bet: Canadiens Moneyline ✔️