Ottawa Brings Form, Rangers Try To Stop The Slide
— Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Prediction on March 23, 2026
The Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers meet Monday night with the recent form pointing in very different directions. Ottawa has won 4 of its last 5 and is pushing hard in the playoff race, while New York comes in on a 4-game skid and has not looked nearly as steady in its own end. This NHL pick leans toward the hotter side, especially with the Senators bringing the better current results, the better road profile, and a clear edge in overall team production.
Our Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Pick
📌 Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline
📈 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers
- Date & Time: March 23, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
- Broadcast: NHL Net, MSG, Prime, RDS
| Moneyline | Puckline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Senators -192 | Rangers +160 | Senators -1.5 +124 | Rangers +1.5 -148 | Over 5.5 -130 | Under 5.5 +110 |
Key Storylines
Ottawa has earned this favorite price with the way it has played over the last week and a half. The Senators beat Toronto 5-2 on Saturday, edged the Islanders 3-2 on Thursday, and also posted a 7-4 win over San Jose plus a 2-0 shutout of Anaheim in the current 4-1 stretch. The only loss in that run was a 4-1 setback against Washington. That is a much stronger recent profile than the Rangers bring into this matchup.
New York has gone the other way. The Rangers have lost 4 straight, falling 3-2 in a shootout to Winnipeg on Sunday after losses of 6-3 to Columbus, 6-3 to New Jersey, and 4-1 to Los Angeles. That skid matters because the issue has not been just one bad night. It has been a run of games where the Rangers have given up too much defensively and have not found enough offense late.
Recent Form
The Senators are getting results in a few different ways, which is always a good sign this late in the season. The 5-2 win over Toronto showed their scoring depth, the 3-2 comeback win over the Islanders showed push late in regulation, and the shutout against Anaheim showed they can still win lower-event games when the structure is there. Ottawa has now gone 8-2-1 over its last 11 games, and that kind of stretch gives this team a very different feel than it had earlier in the season.
The Rangers still have enough individual skill to stay dangerous, though the overall trend is hard to ignore. The 3-2 shootout loss to Winnipeg was competitive, and rookie goaltender Dylan Garand played well, but it still extended the skid to 4 games. Before that, New York gave up 16 goals across losses to Columbus, New Jersey, and Los Angeles. That is not the kind of recent form that inspires much trust against a team coming in hot.
Goaltending
Ottawa has the steadier expected starter in Linus Ullmark. He comes in at 22 wins with a 2.77 goals-against average, and the Senators have looked more composed in front of him during this recent surge. Ottawa does not need him to steal every game. It just needs him to hold the line, and lately he has done that.
New York still has the stronger season-long save percentage from Igor Shesterkin, who sits at 22 wins, a 2.56 goals-against average, and a .912 save percentage. That is still high-end work. The issue is that the Rangers have not given him enough help in front of the crease. If he starts, New York stays live. If the Rangers expose him to repeated clean looks again, the edge swings back toward Ottawa.
Injury Update
Ottawa has a few confirmed absences on the blue line. Nick Jensen is on injured reserve, while Dennis Gilbert is out and Jake Sanderson is also sidelined. That does matter for depth on defense, though the Senators have still found ways to win through it over the last several games.
New York also has multiple confirmed injuries. Jonathan Quick is out, Urho Vaakanainen is out, Noah Laba is out, and Matt Rempe remains on injured reserve. The biggest practical effect here is goaltending depth, since Quick being unavailable leaves fewer options behind Shesterkin.
Key Skaters
- Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa with 72 points, 32 goals, and 40 assists. He is the clearest difference-maker in this matchup from a production standpoint.
- Brady Tkachuk remains vital because of the tone he sets around the net and in heavy games. His late winner against the Islanders was a good example of the kind of pressure he creates.
- Claude Giroux still matters because of his puck management and his ability to settle shifts when Ottawa needs composure.
- Mika Zibanejad leads the Rangers with 67 points, 30 goals, and 37 assists. He remains the main finishing threat and the top power-play trigger man.
- Vincent Trocheck is important because New York needs his two-way minutes and faceoff work to keep games under control.
- Alexis Lafreniere can still swing a game with his skill, though the Rangers need more consistent offense from the rest of the group around him.
Betting Trends & H2H
The first meeting this season went Ottawa’s way in emphatic fashion, an 8-4 win over the Rangers in mid-January. New York did beat Ottawa 4-2 in the earlier meeting back in December, so the season series is split. Even so, the current trend matters more here than the older result. Ottawa is 18-13-4 on the road, while the Rangers are just 9-17-7 at home. That is a meaningful gap.
The team stat comparison also points toward Ottawa. The Senators score 3.35 goals per game and allow 3.09, while the Rangers score 2.80 and allow 3.20. Ottawa also owns the better shot profile, averaging 29.0 shots per game and allowing 24.1, compared with 25.1 for and 29.4 against for New York. The Rangers can absolutely hang around because of Shesterkin, but the broader numbers lean toward the Senators.
Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Model Projection
🏒 Score Projection: Ottawa Senators 3 – New York Rangers 2
📊 Win Probability: Ottawa Senators 56%, New York Rangers 44%
Final Thoughts
This looks like a spot where the better current team deserves the nod, even on the road. Ottawa is getting stronger recent results, more reliable scoring balance, and a better overall team profile. New York still has enough talent to make this uncomfortable, especially if Shesterkin steals long stretches, but the Rangers have lost 4 straight for a reason. The Senators are playing the cleaner hockey right now, and that is enough to back them on the moneyline rather than forcing a puckline angle.
Best Bet: Senators Moneyline ✔️