Warriors Face Tough Task Without Curry vs Timberwolves
— Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors Pick on March 13, 2026
The Minnesota Timberwolves arrive in San Francisco trying to stop a slide, while the Golden State Warriors are dealing with their own rough stretch and missing key players. Minnesota enters at 40 to 26 and remains in the middle of a crowded Western Conference playoff race, while Golden State sits at 32 to 33 and is fighting to stay in the play-in picture. That contrast sets up an intriguing NBA pick.
Minnesota still carries the stronger roster and defensive profile, but recent losses have exposed some cracks. Golden State, meanwhile, has been short-handed without Stephen Curry and has struggled to close games. The question for bettors is whether the Timberwolves stabilize after a few ugly outings or whether the Warriors keep things tight at Chase Center.
Our Timberwolves vs Warriors Pick
📌 Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5
📈 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
- Date & Time: March 13, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
- Broadcast: Prime Video, NBC Sports Bay Area
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota -5.5 | Golden State +5.5 | Minnesota -230 | Golden State +190 | Over 225.5 | Under 225.5 |
Key Storylines
Both teams come into this game searching for answers after recent struggles. Minnesota has dropped three straight games and has allowed 130 points per game across that stretch, a sign that its normally strong defense has slipped. The Timberwolves still hold a top-six position in the Western Conference, but the race behind Oklahoma City and Denver remains extremely tight.
Golden State has also struggled, falling below .500 after a recent overtime loss to Chicago. The Warriors have gone 7 to 14 since losing Jimmy Butler earlier in the season and have had difficulty generating consistent offense without Stephen Curry. Despite the losses, Golden State has still been competitive in many games and continues to lean on ball movement and rebounding to stay within reach.
Injury Update
Minnesota enters this game with a relatively clean injury report and most of its core rotation available. Golden State is dealing with more significant absences. Stephen Curry remains out with a knee injury, and Moses Moody is sidelined with a right wrist sprain. Those losses remove a major portion of the Warriors’ perimeter scoring and place additional pressure on the remaining rotation players.
Key Players
Key players for the Minnesota Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards remains the engine of Minnesota’s offense, averaging around 27 points per game while carrying a heavy scoring load on the perimeter.
- Rudy Gobert anchors the defense and averages double-digit rebounds while protecting the rim, which is critical against Golden State’s interior scoring attempts.
- Julius Randle provides another scoring option in the frontcourt and has been important in creating second-chance opportunities.
Key players for the Golden State Warriors
- Draymond Green remains the defensive leader and primary facilitator, often initiating offense and controlling tempo.
- Brandin Podziemski has stepped into a larger role with Curry sidelined and provides scoring and playmaking from the guard position.
- Gui Santos has recently produced strong rebounding and scoring numbers while filling minutes in the rotation.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Timberwolves | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 114.2 | 111.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 110.1 | 113.7 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 45.1 | 43.6 |
| Assists Per Game | 26.4 | 28.1 |
Minnesota holds a clear defensive advantage in this matchup. The Timberwolves allow fewer points per game and rely heavily on rim protection and rebounding to control games. When Minnesota is playing well defensively, it forces opponents into difficult half-court shots and limits second chances.
Golden State counters with ball movement and perimeter shooting, reflected in its higher assist numbers. However, the absence of Curry removes a major offensive threat, which has made scoring runs harder to sustain. The Warriors have also struggled to defend larger frontcourts, an area where Minnesota can create mismatches.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Timberwolves have had success in recent meetings, including a convincing 108 to 83 victory earlier this season. Minnesota’s size and defensive length have often created problems for Golden State’s smaller lineups.
Golden State has struggled against the spread this season with a 29 to 36 ATS record. Minnesota has also been inconsistent for bettors, but the Timberwolves have generally performed better when facing teams below .500.
Totals have leaned slightly toward the over in Golden State games due to the team’s pace and reliance on perimeter shooting. Still, Minnesota’s defense can slow games down and push scoring closer to the middle range of the posted total.
Timberwolves vs Warriors Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Timberwolves 118 – Golden State Warriors 111
Win Probability: Minnesota Timberwolves 60%, Golden State Warriors 40%
Final Thoughts
Minnesota enters this matchup with the stronger roster, better defense, and healthier lineup. Even though the Timberwolves have struggled in recent games, the underlying numbers still favor them in most categories. Golden State continues to fight hard, but without Curry the Warriors lack the offensive firepower needed to consistently keep up with top Western Conference teams.
If Minnesota controls the boards and limits turnovers, the Timberwolves should be able to create separation over four quarters. Golden State may keep things competitive early thanks to home energy and ball movement, but the matchup favors Minnesota’s size and scoring options.
Best Bet: Timberwolves -5.5 ✔️