NCAA Baseball Tournament Conway Regional Preview & Predictions
Last updated May 29, 2025
The Conway Regional sets the stage for serious fireworks in the 2025 NCAA baseball tournament. Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Florida, and Fairfield converge on Springs Brooks Stadium starting May 30 with vastly different résumés, offensive identities, and pitching staffs. Bettors will look for value here because the quartet brings very different statistical profiles, and that makes the numbers hung by oddsmakers anything but straightforward.
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Conway Regional Preview
Coastal enters as the No. 13 national seed, giving the Chanticleers last-at-bat advantages in every contest they play before a packed teal-decked grandstand.
Coastal Carolina Team Preview
No program arrives hotter than Coastal Carolina. Coastal finished the regular season 48-11 and rode a 26-4 Sun Belt slate to claim both the league title and the conference tournament crown.
The Chanticleers post a .288 team batting average, slug at .442, and have scored 442 runs, more than seven per contest. Catcher Caden Bodine (.333 AVG/.477 OBP) controls at-bats from the left side while Sebastian Alexander has swiped 25 bases and blasted nine homers. Eight regulars own on-base clips north of .360, so rallies rarely end after one baserunner.
The Chants' pitching staff is deeper than in recent seasons. Jacob Morrison (11-0, 1.90 ERA, 84 K in 85.1 IP) gives Coastal a true Friday horse, Ryan Lynch (0.61 ERA, 7 saves) can erase any late jam, and Dominick Carbone’s swing-and-miss abilty out of the pen (44 K in 34.1 IP) bridges the gulf between starter and closer. The staff holds foes to a .224 batting average and the defense fields at .977, so free bases are in short supply for opposing lineups.
East Carolina Team Preview
The East Carolina Pirates grabbed the American Athletic Conference automatic bid by sweeping through Clearwater and beating Tulane 8-2 in the title game, yet their overall record sits at 33-25.
Braden Burress has become the lineup’s heartbeat, slashing .392/.489/.505 with 16 steals, providing constant pressure atop the order, while veteran Dixon Williams (.296 AVG, .451 OBP) offers power and double-digit stolen-base speed behind him. ECU’s team batting average is .275, but its walk rate hints at patient plate approaches that can elevate pitch counts.
Pitching is more volatile for the Pirates. Ace Ethan Norby (7-5, 3.81 ERA, 87 K in 66.2 IP) is electric but will have a lot on his shoulders here. Brad Pruett (4.77 ERA) anchors the bullpen, yet depth concerns remain. Opponents have hit 58 homers off Pirate arms already. ECU must win with opportunistic offense and just-enough pitching rather than pure dominance.
Florida Team Preview
Kevin O’Sullivan’s club survived a .500 SEC season (15-15) but still put together a 38-20 overall mark behind one of the nation’s loudest lineups.
Shortstop Colby Shelton headlines with a .377 average, .606 slugging percentage, and 19 doubles. Bobby Boser (.330, 16 HR) and Brody Donay (.315, 17 HR) supply thunder from the right side, giving Florida 88 homers, good for more than 1.5 per game. Three everyday players boast double-digit stolen-base totals, so the Gators can manufacture runs if the ball stays in the park.
On the bump, Aidan King (6-2, 2.76 ERA, 72 K) has grown into a legitimate ace, generating a high strikeout rate. Liam Peterson (8-3, 95 K) offers swing-and-miss talent but must tighten a 4.10 ERA built on occasional command lapses. Reliever Jake Clemente (seven saves, .176 opponent average) gives Florida a trusted late-inning arm.
Fairfield Team Preview
The Metro Atlantic champions travel south with a 39-17 ledger and the confidence of a club that won three straight games to make it here.
Dean Ferrara (.381) leads the team in batting average, Matt Bucciero brings a .351 mark, and Luke Nomura adds balance from the left side at .331. Fairfield doesn’t clear the fence as often as its regional counterparts, yet the Stags’ contact ability, with a team strikeout rate under 18%, keeps innings alive.
The pitching staff finished MAAC play with a 4.84 ERA. Ben Alekson is 9-1 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, while Bowen Baker (3.20 ERA) will be key to this team's chances as well. Finding a dependable third arm looms as Fairfield’s biggest hurdle over the grueling weekend.
Betting Insights
Conway Regional Odds
- Florida -120
- Coastal Carolina –110 (implied 55.6%)
- East Carolina +1000
- Fairfield +3000
Bettors who believe Florida’s slugging will neutralize Coastal’s home-field edge might see value in them as a slight favorite. If you prefer tight pitching, East Carolina’s combination of a live bullpen and gap power profiles as a dark-horse path through the winners’ bracket, especially if Morrison and King duel deep into Friday and leave both favorites thin early. Fairfield’s route requires an opening-night upset behind one of their top pitchers. Without it, the Stags’ depth disadvantages become glaring in Saturday’s quick-turnaround elimination scenarios.
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2025 Conway Regional Prediction
Coastal Carolina’s blend of elite starting pitching and familiarity with its lively home park makes the Chanticleers the logical pick. Expect Morrison to out-duel Florida’s King in a Saturday winner's bracket showcase that feels like a de facto regional final, pushing the Gators into the bullpen-taxing loser’s bracket. East Carolina’s scrappiness should eliminate Fairfield, but the Pirates’ thin rotation likely stalls when confronted by Coastal’s left-right depth a second time. In the end, Kevin Schnall’s squad advances to a Super Regional after a 3-0 weekend, rewarding backers who laid the short price and cementing Coastal Carolina as a sneaky Omaha threat.
