Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez Pick & Promo

Last updated July 15, 2022 | Published July 15, 2022

8:00 PM ET Jul 16
Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

Brian Ortega is a -170 favorite against Yair Rodriguez. Their featherweight fight takes place at UFC Long Island on Saturday July 16th, 2022. These fighters will make the walk around 430PM EST. 

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Brian Ortega -170 vs Yair Rodriguez

This main event is quite high end, and not one to miss!

✅ Yair Rodriguez  has leveled up to some degree, the question is just how much. Rodriguez had his first main event  against the Korean Zombie back in 2018. He was losing that fight until an inverted back elbow out of desperation landed to score him a KO with just one second remaining in that five round fight. He then went on to the tired two fight Jeremy Stephens saga for a pair of fights after a no contest in the first in 2019. After a two year layoff, Rodriguez returned to a main event against Max Holloway in 2021. While he lost the fight comfortably, he showed better than many, including myself expected. Holloway is one of three common opponents for Ortega and Rodriguez. Both lost to Holloway and both beat Korean Zombie. However Ortega knocked out Frankie Edgar while Rodriguez was finished to close the second round against Edgar. 

✅ Rodriguez has a small range edge but Ortega will be the stronger, more willful and more bullying fighter. I believe we will see Ortega be the advancing fighter putting Rodriguez on the back foot, where he is less effective. Ortega will have a power edge in the stand up as well, and is the fighter far more live for a KO. Ortega also has the largest advantage of any area in this fight, and this on the floor with his BJJ game. Any takedown Ortega earns makes him very live for a submission. More importantly, any takedown he earns likely sees that round end with him in top position. Even the threat of an Ortega takedown will likely make Rodriguez more hesitant throughout the fight, further accumulating the advantages for Ortega. 

✅ While the standup is close in this fight, the Ortega edge on the floor will be the difference. Rodriguez will have to account for any incoming takedown attempt. Conversely, Ortega will welcome takedown attempts with open arms. Ortega’s forward pressure should earn him the edge in the striking and I believe he takes at least one round with a takedown and control. The -170 on the flat is a strong value on Ortega. 

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.